As President Trump’s troubles mount, the long-standing expectation that Democrats will gain several House and Senate seats in 2018 has only intensified. At this point, many observers are expecting a bloodbath – and they’re right. But for structural, historical, and intangible reasons, expect the bloodbath to be for Democrats as the GOP further expands its dominance in both houses of Congress.
I see five reasons Democrats on Capitol Hill should stock up on life preservers.
1) Trump’s unpopularity won’t matter. Republicans and moderates who like Trump will vote Republican out sympathy with the president’s state of siege, but many of those who don’t like him will vote Republican as well.
2) The Senate map is savage for Democrats.
3) Structural reasons lock the Democrats out of the House.
4) Democrats have not learned the lessons of 2016.