I’ll start with a statement: Romney’s winning. In evidence, I am going to take a quick look at money, polling and historical trends. 

Polling and historical trends really have to be taken together. If anything, this paints an even more depressing picture if your name happens to be David Axelrod. The incumbent rulecomes from a famous article by Nick Panagakis at the PollingReport where he determined that any incumbent under 50% was in deep doo doo because undecideds broke against the incumbent at a rate north of 80%. Essentially, in an election with a well-known incumbent, undecided means “fire the incumbent unless the challenger has a John Edwards or Mark Foley moment”.