(There was a) surprisingly steep drop in manufacturing output in June. The measure slipped into negative territory for the first time since the American economy technically escaped recession three years ago.

The hope on the blue team after their 2010 catastrophe was that the economy would have been enough revived by 2012 to make their argument more convincing. But that’s not going to happen.

Voters will go to the polls 18 weeks from today. And while Democrats had given up hope on a real recovery by then, they now have to face the strong possibility that there will be further contraction.